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The Armitage—Doll model with random frailty can fail to describe incidence rates of rare cancers influenced by an accelerated biological mechanism at some, possibly short, period of life. We propose a new model to account for this influence. Osteosarcoma and Ewing sarcoma are primary bone cancers with characteristic age-incidence patterns that peak in adolescence. We analyze SEER incidence data for whites younger than 40 years diagnosed during the period 1975−2005, with an Armitage—Doll model with compound Poisson frailty. A new model treating the adolescent growth spurt as the accelerated mechanism affecting cancer development is a significant improvement over that model. We also model the incidence rate conditioning on the event of having developed the cancers before the age of 40 years and compare the results with those predicted by...
Objectives: Early nutrition influences metabolic programming and long-term health. We explored the urinary metabolite profiles of 48 premature infants (birth weight < 1500 g) randomized to an enhanced or a standard diet during neonatal hospitalization. Methods: Metabolomics using nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy (NMR) was conducted on urine samples obtained during the first week of life and thereafter fortnightly. Results: The intervention group received significantly higher amounts of energy, protein, lipids, vitamin A, arachidonic acid and docosahexaenoic acid as compared to the control group. Enhanced nutrition did not appear to affect the urine profiles to an extent exceeding individual variation. However, in all infants the glucogenic amino acids glycine, threonine, hydroxyproline and tyrosine increased substantially during...
Importance: Identifying individuals at high risk of melanoma can optimize primary and secondary prevention strategies. Objective: To develop and externally validate a risk prediction model for incident first-primary cutaneous melanoma using self-assessed risk factors. Design, Setting, and Participants: We used unconditional logistic regression to develop a multivariable risk prediction model. Relative risk estimates from the model were combined with Australian melanoma incidence and competing mortality rates to obtain absolute risk estimates. A risk prediction model was developed using the Australian Melanoma Family Study (629 cases and 535 controls) and externally validated using 4 independent population-based studies: the Western Australia Melanoma Study (511 case-control pairs), Leeds Melanoma Case-Control Study (960 cases and...
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