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Les considérations suivantes se rapportent à la théorie des oscillations économiques. Comme résultat idéal de toutes les recherches à ce sujet, on peut,, il me semble, indiquer la découverte des causes et du mécanisme du mouvement cyclique général des affaires. Au point de vue quantitatif, on est encore loin d'avoir satisfait à cette exigence idéale. Un accord satisfaisant entre théorie et observation statistique n'existe que dans certains cas très simples. Pour les cas plus compliqués, il n'y a guère de t,héorie quantitative suffisamment élaborée, et les corrélations qu'on a trouvées expérimentalement manquent souvent d'une base logique assez fondée. Il y a donc ici un champ très étendu pour la Société d'ficonométrie. J'espère donner ici une petite contribution aux recherches théoriques dans ce champ. Cette contribution n'a cependant ...
Also published in: David F. Hendry and Mary S. Morgan (Eds), The Foundations of Econometric Analysis, Cambridge University Press, New York, 1995, pp. 322-339
Integration is the combination of previously sovereign areas into a larger sovereign area. Its opposite is disintegration or secession. Throughout history a large number of both has occurred, but the integration process has been stronger and the net result is a considerable degree of integration. Two main measures may be used to characterize the phenomenon: the reduction per annum r of the number of sovereign areas and the growth per annum g of the number of areas which become member of the larger area into which they have been integrated. Both r and g are fractions; in r the numerator is the new number of areas and the denominator the previous number. In g the numerator and denominator are, respectively, the denominator and the numerator of r. If the process takes more than one year, say five years, the fifth root of the fraction must...
In the last five years humanity has become faced with the problem of the optimal socioeconomic order more clearly than ever. After the confrontation of capitalism and socialism, which was the core of the Marxist thesis, the fact transpired that capitalism was not the optimal order. It was eliminated in two different ways. In Western economies capitalism was reformed stepwise by pulling its sharpest teeth, while maintaining the stimulating forces in the markets. As to communist economies - the Soviet Union changed capitalism via the 1917 October revolution and China followed. In 1986, Mikhail Gorbachev's view that the communist system did not work was accepted by the Soviet Union communist party congress. Now, in 1992, the world is discussing, more urgently than ever, what the best ('optimal') socio-economic order is; how much reintrodu...
In English: Determination and Interpretation of Supply Curves: an example In: David F. Hendry and Mary S. Morgan (Eds), The Foundations of Econometric Analysis, Cambridge University Press, New York, 1995, pp. 233-245
Een voor de gevolgen van de werkloosheid belangrijke faktor is de kwestie van de roulering van arbeidskrachten. Hetzelfde aantal verloren arbeidsdagen verdeeld over meerdere personen, die dus elk minder lang werkloos zijn, vormt steeds een minder groot gevaar voor de betrokkenen.
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